Analysis of the relationship between intestinal infectious diseases and socioeconomic factors based on machine learning model

Abstract

It is not clear how socioeconomic factors affect the incidence of intestinal infectious diseases in China. This article uses generalized linear models and generalized additive models to analyze the relationship between socioeconomic factors and infectious diseases. Research shows that these two models can reflect the relationship between socioeconomic factors and infectious diseases, but GAM has the best goodness of fit. In the GAM model, considering the comprehensive influence of a variety of socioeconomic factors, the proportion of higher education (p=0.0226) and the population over 65 (p=0.0012) have the most significant impact on the incidence. The number of people under 14 years old (p=0. 0206) and the growth rate of fiscal revenue (p=0. 0269) also have a certain impact on the incidence. Considering the impact of single socioeconomic factors, except for the unemployment rate which has no significant impact on the incidence of hepatitis and cholera (p>0.05), the other five socioeconomic factors have a significant impact on the incidence of intestinal infectious diseases (p<0.05). We believe that the incidence of infectious diseases is related to socioeconomic factors, but the influence curves between socioeconomic factors and disease incidence are not in the same direction and are often non-linear which can provide an effective reference for formulating intestinal infectious disease prevention strategies.