The impact of reliability data on probabilistic safety calculations

Abstract

The lack of plant-specific reliability data for probabilistic safety assessments is occasionally used for discrediting and doubting the validity of such analyses. On the other hand, analyses are often performed without even discussing the applicability of generic reliability data. In an attempt of clarification, the impact of several sets of reliability data stemming from different sources on the explosion frequency of a typical exothermal reaction is investigated. Additionally, a procedure using frequency and probability ranges is employed for comparison. The results show agreement within their respective uncertainty bounds; the identification of key components for safety is not hampered by data differences. The superiority of plant-specific data, which should of course be acquired, cannot be doubted. Nevertheless, improving the safety of a plant is possible using probabilistic safety analyses even with data, which do not stem from the plant under investigation.