Different sets of reliability data and success criteria in a probabilistic safety assessment for a plant producing nitroglycol

Abstract

The lack of plant-specific reliability data for probabilistic safety assessments usually makes it necessary to use generic reliability data. Justifiably different assessments of plant behaviour (success criteria) lead to different models of plant systems. Both affect the numerical results of a probabilistic safety assessment. It is shown how these results change, if different sets of reliability data and different choices of success criteria for the safety system are employed. Differences in results may influence decisions taken on their basis and become especially important if compliance with a safety goal has to be proved, e.g. a safety integrity level. For the purpose of demonstration an accident sequence from a probabilistic safety assessment of a plant producing nitroglycol is used. The analysis relies on plant-specific reliability data so that it provides a good yardstick for comparing it with results obtained using generic data. The superiority of plant-specific data, which should of course be acquired, cannot be doubted. Nevertheless, plant safety can be improved even if generic data are used. However, the assignment to a safety integrity level may be affected by differences in both data and success criteria.