Abstract
<p class="firstIndent">In order to understand the impact of regulating bluefin tuna exports on the Japanese tuna market, we have to clarify the inter-species price relationship. This article investigates the market linkages among four tuna species, bluefin tuna, albacore tuna, bigeye tuna and yellowfin tuna, in Japan. Vector autoregressive distributed lag (VARDL) model is used to simulate the impact of a decrease in the bluefin tuna supply on the price of bluefin tuna and other species. The result is that regulating bluefin tuna exports raise only the price of bluefin tuna but have little impact on the prices of other tuna species.</p>
Highlights
In recent decades, the tuna catch has been increasing, year by year
There is a possibility that the market for yellowfin tuna is linked to the market for bigeye tuna. These results are consistent with Gordon, Salvanes and Atkins (1993), which indicated that the market for high-valued fish species was not linked to the market for middle-valued or low-valued fish species, and with Bose and McIlgorm (1996), which indicated a possible substitutability between bigeye tuna and yellowfin tuna
When the decrease in the supply of bluefin tuna by 1,252 tons is maintained for 12 months, the price of each tuna species rises by 550 yen per kilogram for bluefin tuna, 35 yen for albacore tuna and 15 yen for bigeye tuna and yellowfin tuna
Summary
The tuna catch has been increasing, year by year. Figure 1 shows the shift in the world’s gross tuna catches from 1950 to 2009. Jaffry, Pascoe, Taylor and Zabala (2000) examined the price interaction between salmon and the other main fish species in the Spanish market and concluded that salmon is, at best, the only substitute for tuna, hake and whiting, but found no significant interaction Some articles in these previous studies use vector autoregression (VAR) model or a vector error correction model (VECM). We analyze the impact of a decrease in bluefin tuna supply on the price of four tuna species: bluefin tuna, albacore tuna, bigeye tuna and yellowfin tuna For this purpose, we estimate a VARDL model which explains the price of each tuna type using past prices and supply in present and past periods.
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