Abstract

According to 2019 statistics in Indonesia, the number of motorcycle accidents is relatively high, at 84.4 percent. Other data show that 16.13 percent of accidents include drivers who have previously been in an accident. The purpose of this study is to obtain a model of the probability of an accident for motorcycle riders who have previously experienced an accident as well as for motorcycle riders who have never experienced an accident before. Data were collected by interviewing motorcycle riders who had only been in one traffic accident and those who had been in more than one. The results of the analysis suggest that a driver who has had a previous accident has a 16 percent probability of having an accident, but a driver who has never had an accident has an 84 percent probability of having an accident. Furthermore, validation is carried out by calculating the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) value. The MAD value calculated from the results is 11.16 percent. Following that, numerous scenarios were run, with scenario 1 demonstrating that female drivers who have previously been in an accident have a higher accident probability than male drivers who have previously been in an accident. Meanwhile, scenario 2 shows that drivers above the age of 20 who have had a previous accident are more likely to be involved in an accident than drivers under the age of 20. Scenario 3 reveals that drivers who are on varied roadside variable roads and driving on bends can reduce their monotone level from 45% to 22%, but this condition has no effect on the level of fatigue and the probability of accidents. The final scenario shows that a driver who drives between 24:00 and 06:00 will have probability of fatigue by 73% and will have accident probability by 17%. Finding of this study is the drivers who have previously been involved in an accident are less likely to be involved in another accident compared to the drivers who have never been involved in an accident before.

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