The impact of output volatility on CO2 emissions in Turkey: testing EKC hypothesis with Fourier stationarity test.

Murat Can Genç,Burçhan Sakarya,Aykut Ekinci

doi:10.1007/s11356-021-15448-3

Abstract

This study uses the output volatility–augmented environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model to determine the dynamic short- and long-term impacts of the volatility of economic growth (VOL) on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Turkey from 1980 to 2015. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach indicate that there is a long-run relationship between CO2, per capita real GDP, per capita energy use, and VOL. The coefficients obtained from the ARDL estimation indicate that economic growth and energy use increase CO2 emissions, while VOL decreases CO2 emissions in the long run. Moreover, the coefficients obtained from the ARDL error correction model show that VOL decreases CO2 emissions in the short run, as well. We also find that the EKC is valid in Turkey. This implies for the Turkish case that achieving macro-stability under a “just transition” is key for achieving both economic and environmental benefits from ratifying international agreements such as Paris Agreement and EU Green Deal.

Highlights

Since developed countries started to identify a strong relationship between economic growth and environmental deterioration in the late 1960s, the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption has become an attractive research area (Beckerman 1992)
The Kyoto Protocol held in 1997 was a significant turning point in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through a strong public awareness of global warming (Bildirici and Gökmenoğlu 2017). These efforts gained further momentum with the introduction of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which was an outcome of a series of meetings held by the UN and finalized in 2005 to tackle eight main goals; Environ Sci Pollut Res one of the MDGs is to “ensure environmental sustainability”
This study focuses on the effect of output volatility on carbon emission in Turkey, which is a novel study in the literature

Summary

Introduction

Since developed countries started to identify a strong relationship between economic growth and environmental deterioration in the late 1960s, the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption has become an attractive research area (Beckerman 1992). Menyah and Wolde-Rufael (2010) found a positive short and long-run relationship between emissions and economic growth in South Africa from 1965 to 2006, using the bound test approach to cointegration. This study adds to the recent literature regarding growth, economic activity on environmental degradation by considering macroeconomic stability in the form of output volatility in Turkey.

Results

Conclusion