Abstract
Over a quarter-century of match-level data are used to examine the effect of managerial change on team performance in English (association) football, using ordered probit regression. On average, teams that changed their manager within-season are found to under-perform over the following 3 months. Managerial change also increases the variance of the non-systematic component of performance in the short term. The high incidence of within-season managerial change in English football may be a consequence of team owners gambling that an increased variance may help produce an improvement in performance sufficient to stave off the threat of relegation.
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