Making sense of the sack race: the impact of managerial change in the English Football League

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of managerial change in the English football industry. The authors’ theoretical discussion covers three contrasting concepts that attempt to explain the association between manager change and organizational performance (scapegoating theory, vicious circle theory and tenure and life-cycle theory).Design/methodology/approachData were collected for the four main English Football Leagues (EFLs) between 2000/2001 and 2015/2016. A total of 2,816 football matches were included in the study and during this time 525 instances of managerial change were observed. Analysis was conducted using relevant statistical techniques to examine the impact of managerial change on performance.FindingsThe results show significant differences in all four EFLs when considering teams who make a managerial change and those who do not. Further analysis revealed that a managerial change is more beneficial for clubs in the bottom half of the league, particularly for the English Premier League.Originality/valueThe implications for clubs competing in English football are clear when considering the strategic direction of the club in respect of managerial change and its impact on team performance. Yet, our findings come with a warning. The findings do not infer direct cause and effect here, and any board decision should consider additional factors other than sporting performance before deciding to sack their manager.