Abstract
Abstract. Western Norway suffered major flooding after 4 d of intense rainfall during the last week of October 2014. While events like this are expected to become more frequent and severe under a warming climate, convection-permitting scale models are showing their skill with respect to capturing their dynamics. Nevertheless, several sources of uncertainty need to be taken into account, including the impact of initial conditions on the precipitation pattern and discharge, especially over complex, mountainous terrain. In this paper, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modelling system (WRF-Hydro) is applied at a convection-permitting scale, and its performance is assessed in western Norway for the aforementioned flood event. The model is calibrated and evaluated using observations and benchmarks obtained from the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model. The calibrated WRF-Hydro model performs better than the simpler conceptual HBV model, especially in areas with complex terrain and poor observational coverage. The sensitivity of the precipitation pattern and discharge to poorly constrained elements such as spin-up time and snow conditions is then examined. The results show the following: (1) the convection-permitting WRF-Hydro simulation generally captures the precipitation pattern/amount, the peak flow volume and the timing of the flood event; (2) precipitation is not overly sensitive to spin-up time, whereas discharge is slightly more sensitive due to the influence of soil moisture, especially during the pre-peak phase; and (3) the idealized snow depth experiments show that a maximum of 0.5 m of snow is converted to runoff irrespective of the initial snow depth and that this snowmelt contributes to discharge mostly during the rainy and the peak flow periods. Although further targeted experiments are needed, this study suggests that snow cover intensifies the extreme discharge instead of acting as a sponge, which implies that future rain-on-snow events may contribute to a higher flood risk.
Highlights
Heavy rainfall, with local amounts exceeding 350 mm, fell over the coastal and mountainous areas of western Norway between 26 and 29 October 2014
The results show the following: (1) the convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro simulation generally captures the precipitation pattern/amount, the peak flow volume and the timing of the flood event; (2) precipitation is not overly sensitive to spin-up time, whereas discharge is slightly more sensitive due to the influence of soil moisture, especially during the pre-peak phase; and (3) the idealized snow depth experiments show that a maximum of 0.5 m of snow is converted to runoff irrespective of the initial snow depth and that this snowmelt contributes to discharge mostly during the rainy and the peak flow periods
As calibration is computationally demanding, we calibrate WRF-Hydro based on the discharge of Svartavatn, which is the smallest catchment in the study region
Summary
With local amounts exceeding 350 mm, fell over the coastal and mountainous areas of western Norway between 26 and 29 October 2014. “October flood in western Norway 2014” (Dannevig et al, 2016) and “The flood in western Norway October 2014” (Lansholt et al, 2015), from the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) that documented the rainfall and discharge records as well as the societal impacts. For flood hazards such as this, it is a challenge to forecast/hindcast the hydrological response due to the complex terrain and the events’ complex spatial and temporal characteristics. With extreme precipitation over this region projected to increase significantly over the coming decades With extreme precipitation over this region projected to increase significantly over the coming decades (e.g. Hanssen-Bauer et al, 2017), the need to reliably reproduce such events is high for both climate researchers and operational professionals
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