The impact of household size on measles transmission: A long-term perspective

Abstract

Households play an important role in the transmission of infectious diseases due to the close contact therein. Previous modeling studies on disease transmission with household-level mixing have explored the relationship between household size distribution and epidemic characteristics such as final epidemic sizes and the basic reproduction number but have not considered the epidemic impact of declining household sizes caused by demographic shifts. Here, we use a disease transmission model that incorporates demographic changes in household sizes to study the long-term transmission dynamics of measles in communities with varying household size distributions. We explore the impact of incorporating both household- and age-structured mixing on the dynamic properties of the transmission model and compare these dynamics across different household size distributions. Our analysis, based on the household- and age-structured model, shows that communities with larger household sizes require higher vaccination thresholds and bear a greater burden of infections. However, simulations shows the apparent impact of changing household sizes is the combined result of changing birth rates and household mixing, and that changing birth rates likely play a larger role than changes in household mixing in shaping measles transmission dynamics (n.b, life-long immunity makes replenishment of population susceptibility from births a crucial transmission driver for measles). In addition, simulations of endemic transmission of measles within a hypothetical population formulated using aggregated world demographic data suggest the decline in household size (driven by changing fertility rates of the population), in addition to increasing vaccination coverage, could have had a significant impact on the incidence of measles over time.