The Impact of Grazing Systems on the Magnitude and Stability of Ranch Income in the Rolling Plains of Texas

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Results of a 1961-1974 grazing system study on the Texas Experimental Ranch in the Rolling Plains were used to evaluate annual net income stability characteristics for a cow-calf opera- tion. A linear programming risk analysis model was utilized to select optimal combinations of grazing systems which minimized annual negative net income fluctuations. Greatest annual net incomes, expressed in 1979 dollars, were obtained from heavier stocked, continuously grazed systems which received winter feed. For the 1961-1974 period, annual net income stability was not increased by selecting combination of grazing systems. However, when only the last 5 years were included in the analysis, the stability of annual net income was improved by selecting a combination of grazing systems. Supplemental winter feeding did not have a signif- icant effect on annual net incomes. However, under heavier stock- ing rates the standard deviation of annual net income was approximately doubled when cows did not receive supplemental winter feed. Annual income and income variability was determined to have increased during the last 5 years of the study, relative to the total study period. It is hypothesized that a portion of this increased variability at the heavier rates of stocking is the result of changes in the composition of vegetation. The general increase in variability across all systems indicates that ranch operators may need to consider alternatives for risk management as well as man- agement for profits. Ranch operators have long strived to become more efficient in the management of their ranch resources. This effort has been made in order to increase economic returns and reduce economic risks associated with ranching. Risks in the ranching industry are as a result of the nature of livestock market, weather, diseases, prices paid for inputs, the use of credit, and government regulation. In the Rolling Plains of Texas, and in the Great Plains in general, the need to reduce adverse economic impacts of fluctuating forage supplies has resulted in considerable research efforts by public institutions and agencies. A major goal of range research is to identify alternatives to more efficient harvest forage from range- land and to increase forage quantity and quality for use by domes- tic livestock. The major purpose of this study was to evaluate net returns and the annual stability of these net returns from five grazing management systems in the Rolling Plains of Texas from 1961 to 1974 (Fig. 1). In developing a ranch management plan, it is assumed that net income levels and net income stability (risk) associated with var- ious production strategies for increasing net income are of concern to ranch operators (Markowitz 1959). Agricultural firm managers