The impact of global warming on the potential suitable planting area of Pistacia chinensis is limited

Abstract

Pistacia chinensis Bunge. is one of the main woody oil crops with a large artificial planting area in China and has important economic and ecological value. Here, based on 237 occurrence data and 22 environmental variables, we explored the potential planting area of P. chinensis in China in the present and future climate change scenarios by using a comprehensive model method. To fully consider the potential planting area of P. chinensis under specific climate change conditions and the limitations of soil conditions, we separately built two niche models to simulate the climate niche and soil demand niche, and then used the intersection of the two models as the result of the comprehensive habitat suitability model, finally, we used land-use data to filter the CHS model result. Our results showed, that under the baseline condition, the potential planting area of P. chinensis covers approximately 0.74 × 106 km2 in China. The future projection showed that the impact of global warming on the potentially suitable planting area of P. chinensis is limited, and most of the existing suitable habitats are not affected by climate change. With increasing temperature, the potential planting area will expand northward and slightly contract in the south margin, and its area will be slightly increased. Therefore, this species has great planting potential in China and should be given priority in the future afforestation plan.