The Impact of Global Warming on Residential Air Conditioning Ownership and Usage in Mauritius, a Small Island Developing State

Abstract

Acknowledging the increasing demand for Air Conditioning (AC) usage, understanding how AC demand will evolve under the impact of climate change in the tropical island of Mauritius is very important. This paper presents the results of a survey focused on the AC usage patterns and adoption for Mauritius. The data are further used to develop a logit model to predict how AC ownership will change for 2050 and 2070 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The model predicts that in 2070 under the worst-case scenario, RCP 8.5, 95% of the population will have 50% probability of owning an AC compared to 77% of the population presently. It was further estimated that 22% of the whole population will likely be operating their AC through the year. This paper points out the need for urgent strategies for promoting more sustainable cooling in Mauritius and the importance of further research on cooling options.