The impact of global trends on bioenergy production, food supply and global warming potential – an impact assessment of land-use changes in four regions in Germany using linear programming

Abstract

Agricultural land use faces global trends such as increasing energy costs, rising agricultural commodity prices and augmenting demand for bioenergy. Our aim is to assess the impact of these trends on the use of arable land for bioenergy and food production, as well as on greenhouse gas emissions and energy requirements from crop production, using linear programming farm type models for scenario simulations in four case study areas in Germany. The results suggest that the analysed global trends are critical for the allocation of land for food or energy crop production. The impacts of agricultural production on farm incomes and services, such as the provision of food and bioenergy, vary notably between the case study areas and the analysed trends. Different agricultural production systems will respond differently to changing boundary conditions in terms of bioenergy production and food supply. Assessing the impact on bioenergy and food production requires taking into account the particular setting in which production is carried out, as well as the local-specific interdependencies of land use and the provision of ecosystem services.