The impact of farmland use transition on CO2 emissions and its spatial spillover effects from the perspective of major function-oriented zoning: The case of Huang-Huai-Hai plain

Abstract

Global warming seriously threatens the sustainable development of society and the economy, and the farmland use system is one of the major sources of CO2 emissions. However, few studies have explored the carbon emission reduction effect of farmland use transition (FUT) and its spatial spillover effects. To address the problem, here, CO2 emissions reductions that could be achieved by farmland use transition are quantified, followed by an assessment of the spatial spillover effects of FUT on CO2 emissions from the perspective of Major Function-oriented Zoning. Results showed that there was a significant spatial autocorrelation among CO2 emissions, FUT, and its specific morphologies, and the CO2 emission showed a spatial pattern of “higher in the east and lower in the west” and “higher in the north and lower in the south”. The direct and spatial spillover effects of quantitative farmland use transition, spatial structure farmland use transition, and production function farmland use transition on CO2 emissions were positive, while that of living and ecological function farmland use transition were negative. Furthermore, FUT's carbon emission reduction effects in different MFZs were relatively complicated with heterogeneity. These findings provide theoretical support for policymakers to achieve regional carbon emission reduction goals through FUT and inspirations for coordinating sustainable development.