The Impact of Economic Growth, Industrial Transition, and Energy Intensity on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China

Abstract

Carbon emission reduction has become a worldwide concern on account of global sustainability issues. Many existing studies have focused on the various socioeconomic influencing factors of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and the corresponding transmission mechanisms, while very few models have unified the scale effect, structure effect, and technique effect in the context of China. This paper attempted to analyze the impact of economic growth, industrial transition, and energy intensity on CO2 emissions in China by constructing an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The results showed that there are long-term cointegration relationships between the three factors mentioned above and CO2 emissions. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions, which not only verifies the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, but also upholds the scale effect. In addition, the proportion of added value of secondary industry and energy intensity has significant positive impacts on CO2 emissions. On one hand, this confirms the structure effect and technique effect; on the other hand, it implies that the reduction effect is the dominant effect in the case of China, instead of the rebound effect. This paper is expected to make a valuable contribution to research in the field of sustainable development by providing both theoretical support and implementation of path choice for CO2 reduction in China.