Abstract
In recent years, gross domestic product (GDP) has grown rapidly in China, but the growth rate of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has begun to decline. Some scholars have put forward the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for CO2 emissions in China. This paper utilized the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1997 to 2016 to verify the EKC hypothesis. To explore the real reasons behind the EKC, the index gasoline to diesel consumption ratio (GDCR) was introduced in this paper. The regression results showed that CO2 emissions and GDP form an inverted U-shaped curve. This means that the EKC hypothesis holds. The regression results also showed that a 1% GDCR increase was coupled with a 0.118186% or 0.114056% CO2 emission decrease with the panel fully modified ordinary least squares or panel dynamic ordinary least squares method, respectively. This means that CO2 emissions negatively correlate with GDCR. From the discussion of this paper, the growth rate reduction of CO2 emissions is caused by the economic transition in China. As changes of GDCR can, from a special perspective, reflect the economic transition, and as GDCR is negatively correlated with CO2 emissions, GDCR can sometimes be used as a new socioeconomic indicator of carbon dioxide emissions in China.
Highlights
There is considerable evidence proving that global warming is very likely to be caused by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and fossil fuel consumption is the main reason for CO2 emissions [1,2]
PCCDE represents per capita CO2 emissions; PCGDP represents the per capita gross domestic product (GDP); ln denotes the logarithm of the data;2 represents the square of the logarithm of PCGDP; GDCR represents the gasoline to diesel consumption ratio; a, b, and c are the parameters that need to be estimated; and r is the residue of estimation
If the parameter of the GDP square was negative, that means that CO2 emissions and GDP formed an inverted U–shaped curve, so the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis held [31]; if the parameter of GDCR was negative, that means GDCR was negatively correlated with CO2 emissions
Summary
There is considerable evidence proving that global warming is very likely to be caused by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and fossil fuel consumption is the main reason for CO2 emissions [1,2]. In the past 30 years, China has experienced rapid growth in its economy and energy consumption. The gross domestic product (GDP) still grows rapidly in China, but the growth rate of CO2 emissions has begun to decline for the whole of China and for some Chinese provinces [3]. Some scholars have hypothesized that the CO2 emissions in China will form an inverted U-shaped curve with respect to GDP [4,5,6]. This hypothesis is called the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for CO2 emissions in China
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