The impact of double carbon goals on industrial structure in a region of China

Abstract

As an extensive and profound systemic change, carbon emission reduction is driving the reform and transformation of China’s economic and industrial structure. Firstly, a variable fractional order model is used to predict carbon emissions under different carbon reduction policy scenarios. Based on the analysis of different scenarios, the non equal order adjacent accumulation model was established to analyze regional industrial structure. Empirical research finds that with the continuous increase of policy strength, the proportion of primary industry structure and tertiary industry structure in Hebei will increase, and the proportion of secondary industry structure will decrease; the proportion of primary industry and secondary industry in Tianjin will increase, and the proportion of tertiary industry will decrease; the industry structure in Beijing is relatively stable. Therefore, the implementation of double carbon target should be scientifically judged and advance gradually in regular order, and an implementation strategy of multi-dimensional balance and dynamic optimization should be sought. The research conclusions are conducive to providing scientific guidance for policy formulation and helping to achieve the double carbon goal.