The impact of different GHG reduction scenarios on the economy and social welfare of Thailand using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model

Assessing the economic and environmental impact of freight transport sectors in Thailand using computable general equilibrium model

Major US electric utility climate pledges have the potential to collectively reduce power sector emissions by one-third

In order to achieve target greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, such as those proposed by each country by nationally determined contributions (NDCs), GHG emission projections are receiving attention around the world. Generally, integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used to estimate future GHG emissions considering both economic structure and final energy consumption. However, these models usually do not consider the entire supply chain, because of differences in the aims of application. In contrast, life cycle assessment (LCA) considers the entire supply chain but does not cover future environmental impacts. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the national carbon footprint projection in Japan based on life cycle thinking and IAMs, using the advantages of each. A future input–output table was developed using the Asia-Pacific integrated model (AIM)/computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (Japan) developed by the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES). In this study, we collected the fundamental data using LCA databases and estimated future GHG emissions based on production-based and consumption-based approaches considering supply chains among industrial sectors. We targeted fiscal year (FY) 2030 because the Japanese government set a goal for GHG emissions in 2030 in its NDC report. Accordingly, we set three scenarios: FY2005 (business as usual (BAU)), FY2030 (BAU), and FY2030 (NDC). As a result, the carbon footprint (CFP) in FY2030 will be approximately 1097 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2eq), which is 28.5% lower than in FY2005. The main driver of this reduction is a shift in energy use, such as the introduction of renewable energy. According to the results, the CFP from the consumption side, fuel combustion in the use stage, transport and postal services, and electricity influence the total CFP, while results of the production side showed the CFP of the energy and material sectors, such as iron and steel and transport, will have an impact on the total CFP. Moreover, carbon productivity will gradually increase and FY2030 (NDC) carbon productivity will be higher than the other two cases.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction in the electricity sector: Implications of increasing renewable energy penetration in Ghana's electricity generation mix

The Korean government has recently established national and sectoral mid-term greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets. Specifically, the country must reduce its total GHG emissions by 30% compared to business-as-usual (BAU) by 2020. This study has two main purposes. First, the study aims to measure the economic impacts of pursuing and achieving the government’s GHG reduction targets. Second, it aims to estimate each major policy’s potential GHG emission reductions in the various sectors. We use the computable general equilibrium model and develop three scenarios to examine the economic and environmental impacts of Korea’s green growth policies – a baseline scenario wherein the national economy proceeds without green growth policies; scenario A, wherein the government imposes national and sectoral emission reduction targets without adopting green technologies; and scenario B, wherein the government adopts policy and technology as renewable portfolio standard and carbon capture and storage. The simulation results from scenario A indicate that the government’s mid-term targets could pose a significant challenge to Korea’s national economy. In addition, the results from scenario B indicate that low-carbon green policy and technology will play an important role in reducing GHG emissions.

Biofuel mandates can impact the environment in multiple ways that may be positive or negative, including affecting life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing fossil fuels, affecting soil carbon stocks due to accompanying land use change, and water quality due to changes in fertilizer requirements and the mix of crops used as feedstocks. To achieve desired environmental outcomes in the presence of a biofuel mandate, additional policy instruments must be adopted to supplement the mandate. We develop an integrated and spatially explicit ecosystem-economic modeling framework to analyze the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies to achieve desired targets for GHG emissions reduction from the agricultural and fuel sectors in the USA and nitrate leaching reduction in the Gulf of Mexico below the levels that would be achieved by a corn ethanol and/or a cellulosic ethanol mandate in the USA. We find that while a corn ethanol mandate lowers GHG emissions, it increases nitrate leaching due to the expansion of corn production; a cellulosic ethanol mandate lowers both GHG emissions and nitrate leaching relative to a corn ethanol mandate, but the additional carbon and nitrate prices are needed to achieve anticipated GHG reduction and nitrate reduction targets. We also find that accompanying a biofuel mandate with a GHG reduction target alone leads to substantial nitrate reduction co-benefits, but a nitrate reduction target alone is less effective in reducing GHG emissions. Combining a GHG standard with a nitrate standard can achieve GHG and nitrate reduction targets at lower carbon and nitrate prices as compared to implementing each of these policies independently. Our findings show that disregarding policy co-benefits can overestimate the GHG and nitrate prices needed to achieve policy targets and higher policy costs.

Turkish energy sector development and the Paris Agreement goals: A CGE model assessment

Background and objective: Carbon neutrality must be achieved across societal sectors through carbon neutral policies. Therefore, local governments, which realize the actual greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction, must develop GHG reduction strategies. This study aims to present information on the GHG reduction of the building sector (BS) at the local government level, for the carbon neutrality by 2050 (CN).Methods: The gross floor area (GFA) of all buildings and the total floor area of household (HBs), business (BBs), and public buildings (PBs) and by 2050 were predicted using building and demographic information from Jeollanam-do. Buildings were classified as over or under 10 years old. GHG emissions projection by 2050 were combined the GFA prediction results with public information on building energy consumption (BEC). After adjusting the nationwide CN goal for the BS in Jeollanam-do, the pathways for two scenarios were to estimate GHG reduction.Results: HBs showed the steepest increase in GFA, while BBs and PBs showed a very modest increase. About 30% of HBs and BBs were under 10 years and about 70% were over 10 years. The HB's GHG emissions increased remarkably, reflecting the GFA results, while the emissions of BBs and PBs didn't raised much. GHG reduction targets by 2030 were calculated as 1.4, 0.7, and 0.35 million TOE for HBs, BBs, and PBs, respectively. Reduction Scenario 1 shows a straight-line path with a negative slope from 2023. Reduction Scenario 2 shows an increase in emissions after 2023, which begins to decrease from 2028, falling with a curved steep slope until 2035, followed by a very modest decline until 2050.Conclusion: This study calculated GHG emissions from the BS by 2050 using the latest information on BEC and GHG calculation guidelines. The method in this study helps establish regional/local GHG reduction targets, setting scenarios, and estimating GHG reduction.

Thailand commits to achieving Carbon Neutrality by 2050 and net-zero GHG emissions by 2065. Its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) also aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30% by 2030 through domestic efforts, termed “Unconditional NDC,” and up to 40% with international support, termed “Conditional NDC,” compared to its 2030 Business-as-Usual (BAU) of 555 MtCO2eq. This study explores the potential for reducing GHG emissions in Thailand's energy sector through international cooperation such as the Joint Credit Mechanism (JCM), in accordance with of the Paris Agreement (PA). It is essential that the results of international transfers are accurately accounted for and reported in the NDC tracking under Article 13 by both Parties to prevent double counting. The investigation utilizes the AIM/EndUse model, created by the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Japan. The results show that under the international cooperation framework, Thailand needs to reduce GHG emissions beyond the target specified in the conditional NDC. Finally, to enable the transfer of Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) under Article 6.2 of PA, Thailand's share of carbon credits should reasonably be capped at no more than 20%, with an additional emission reduction of 12.34 MtCO2 beyond the conditional Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target of 49.34 MtCO2.

Renewable energy expansion in the Chilean power market: A dynamic general equilibrium modeling approach to determine CO2 emission baselines

A pilot scale composting plant has been established on-campus in Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) to achieve the goal as a sustainable campus. Portion of organic wastes were diverted from landfilling by converting it into compost (organic fertiliser) for reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) emission at the landfill and the dependency on inorganic fertiliser. Composting has been reported as a sustainable approach to reduce the footprint of GHG as compared to the waste disposal through landfilling. However, the amount of GHG emitted during composting can vary due to localised condition. The aim of this study was to assess the potential of composting in mitigating GHG emission compared to the current waste management employed in UTM (Landfilling). A business as usual (BAU) scenario represents the current organic waste management practice in UTM was established. Composting was proposed as an alternative scenario. The amount of GHG emitted or reduced from different sources including for transportation, waste processing, waste treatment as well as downstream activities such as carbon sequestration and inorganic fertiliser substitution was estimated based on lifecycle inventory analysis. The result indicated that composting scenario offer a GHG reduction of 66.72 % as compared to the BAU scenario. The fugitive emission from biodegradation of organic waste contributed significantly to the GHG emission for both scenarios whereas the GHG emission from the fossil fuel combustion was considered as not significant. The overall result suggested the potential of composting as a viable technology for sustainable organic waste management in UTM.

Taking Stock of Strategies on Climate Change and the Way Forward: A Strategic Climate Change Framework for Australia

Assessment of renewable energy and energy efficiency plans in Thailand’s industrial sector

ABSTRACTThis study aims at the development of Thailand’s low-carbon society in 2030 by using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Extended Snap Shot model for analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation through renewable energy (RE) utilization. This article presents the potentials of RE in power generation, industrial, and transport sectors in Thailand for GHG mitigation in 2030. The deployment of the RE sources is used in the analyses with potentials of mini-hydro of 390 MW, wind power of 960 MW, solar power of 600 MW, biomass energy of 4,400 MW, biogas power of 144 MW, waste to power of 192 MW, bioenergy of 4,634 ktoe, and RE for thermal of 8,088 ktoe in 2030. According to the proposed development, the amount of GHG emissions is estimated based on business-as-usual (BAU) without mitigation measures and countermeasures with GHG mitigation options of adopted RE technologies available during 2005–2030. Results show that annual GHG emissions in the base year of 2005 are 185,983 kt-CO2. In 2030 the GHG emissions in the BAU scenario will increase to 563,730 kt-CO2 or 3.03 times higher than the base year 2005. The GHG emissions in the 2030 can be decreased dramatically to 443,043 kt-CO2, and accounted for 21.4% of GHG reduction by deployment of RE technologies.

The livestock sector holds a prominent position among Brazilian economic sectors; however, beef production is linked to noteworthy environmental impacts, including deforestation and greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions. In alignment with the Paris Agreement, Brazil aims to reduce GHG emissions by 43% by 2030 as part of its NDC commitment. This study aims to elucidate the nexus between beef production and emissions from beef cattle, providing an assessment of predictive GHG emission scenarios for 2030, and an economic valuation of these emissions utilizing the social cost of carbon (SCC). Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, GHG emissions from beef production are estimated to range between 0.42-0.63 GtCO2e in 2030. Conversely, meeting the Brazilian Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) target requires limiting emissions to 0.26 GtCO2e. The SCC analysis unveils a potential cost reductions ranging from US $18.8 to $42.6 billion in 2030, contingent upon achieving the NDC. Furthermore, a strategic assessment considering climate targets and prioritizing beef exports envisions a domestic market availability of 2-10kg of beef per capita in 2030. This study highlight the critical need for transformative adjustments in livestock production methods to reduce GHG emissions per unit of beef yield, with a focus on the economic advantages of emission mitigation.