The impact of COVID-19 on farmers' economic income in Hubei Province of China

Abstract

This paper discusses the statistical measurement of the impact of COVID-19 majoremergencies on farmers' economic income in Hubei Province. Hubei Province wasselected as the object of analysis, and five data of total output value of agriculture,forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and per capita disposable income of farmers inHubei Province from the first quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2020 werecollected by using the Internet. Since all the collected data were macroeconomic data,these data were taken the logarithm to meet the economic significance.The per capita disposable income of farmers was taken as the response variable, andthe main factors affecting farmers' income were obtained by factor analysis.Livestock husbandry and fishery industries were the main industries in HubeiProvince. Then the score of factor analysis were taken as explained variable toestablish regression model composed of influencing factors. This paper use themultiple linear regression, support vector regression to fitting and forecasting data,ARIMA model of time series analysis, introduced at the same time, through the AICmodel choice, with the first quarter of 2013 to 2019 in the second quarter fittingtraining, backward prediction two quarters, and three or four quarter of 2019compared with the real data, through to the predicted results of the sequence diagramand evaluation index model to compare the mean square error (RMSE).Three models predict per capita disposable income of farmers in the first and secondquarter of 2020. It has been found that performance better ARIMA model in themodel compare is worse than before, and three kinds of predicted values are higherthan the real value of the model, showed the outbreak to the influence of theagricultural economy in hubei province is serious.On this basis, taking into accountthe characteristics of geomorphic climate in Hubei province, the constructivesuggestions are put forward.