The impact of country risks on cobalt trade patterns from the perspective of the industrial chain

Abstract

As a strategic mineral resource, cobalt is widely used in the lithium-ion batteries of new energy vehicles. Due to the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the demand for cobalt resources is increasing daily. This paper analyses the current situation of cobalt trade from the perspective of the whole industry chain. Furthermore, the effect of country risk on the cobalt trade pattern is analysed based on panel regression. The results show that the total scale of the upstream trade network is shrinking, while the scale of the middle and downstream trade networks is relatively stable. In the upstream trade network, China, the Netherlands, the US and the UK have strong control over resources. In the midstream network, China, the UK and France are the most influential, with China ranking first. In the downstream network, China, the UK, France, Canada and the US are the most influential countries, and China's influence continues to rank first. In addition, through the empirical analysis of panel regression, we find that the impact of political risk on midstream and downstream trade is almost positive, and the impact of economic risk is negative.