Abstract
Drought and water scarcity are resulting from the effects of climate change during recent decades. The region of Beni Mellal Khenifra, by the nature of its economic activities based particularly on agriculture and the availability of water resources, is considered among the most vulnerable regions to the effects of climate change in Morocco. In this paper, we analyzed the impact of climate change on the three largest dams in the region (Hassan first, Bin El Ouidane and Ahmed El Hansali), based on statistical data from five stations over 1990-2020. We used Normalized Precipitation Index (SPI) to characterize climatic drought, the Mann-Kendall test to assess the trend of temperature changes, Kendall’s tau and linear regression to detect the relationship between climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) and water supplies from the three dams. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) results showed that the region underwent a significant rainfall deficit between 19911995, 2000-2003, 2005-2008, and 2017-2020. Their intensity varies from moderate to severe type. Moreover, temperature values obtained by Mann– Kendall test showed an increasing trend for all stations. Correlation analysis of rainfall and temperature with inflow dams showed that the mean annual inflows dams are directly proportional to the yearly average SPI increase.
Highlights
Global Warming is closely linked to contemporary lifestyles, production and consumption activities, which emit many greenhouse gases
As for Kendall's tau-b Table 5, the results show a strong correlation between the inflow dams and the annual Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) of the three stations and dams
Results obtained showed that the region underwent a significant rainfall deficit between 1991- 1995, 2000-2003, 2005-2008, and 2017-2020, their intensity varies from moderate to severe type using the classification proposed by [9]
Summary
Global Warming is closely linked to contemporary lifestyles, production and consumption activities, which emit many greenhouse gases. Climate change affects all regions of the world. Water is at the core of these changes. The distinctive hydrological cycle segments are affected by climate change: modification of precipitation regimes, inundations, increase in sea level, desertification process, etc. Precipitation in North Africa is expected to decrease by around 10-20%, while temperatures increase to between 2 and 3 °C by 2050 [1]. In the arid and semi-arid zones of North Africa, in Morocco [2] [3], the precariousness of water resources is not recent. The drought that has affected the countries of the Mediterranean basin has manifested itself severely and persistently, characterized by the remarkable intensity with dramatic consequences linked to significant quantitative and qualitative imbalances of water resources [4]
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