Analysis of trends and abrupt changes in groundwater and meteorological droughts in the United Kingdom

Abstract

In recent years, the escalating impact of climate change, coupled with growing concerns regarding groundwater drought, has underscored the critical importance of analyzing hydrological trends. This is a foundational step in advancing effective water resource planning and management. This study presents a regional investigation of groundwater and meteorological droughts in the UK, utilizing the Standardized Groundwater Index (SGI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The analysis encompasses drought duration and an evaluation of the correlation between the SGI and SPI. Subsequently, the seasonal Mann-Kendall (MK) test and the Bayesian Changepoint Detection and Time Series Decomposition (BEAST) algorithm were employed to assess overall trends for both SGI and SPI. Additionally, these methods were utilized to pinpoint trend and seasonal abrupt changes within the time series of both indices.The seasonal MK test revealed statistically significant trends in many SGI stations across the UK, spanning from Northern Scotland down to the South of England, encompassing both increasing and decreasing trends. Additionally, the MK test showed slightly positive trends at the low SPI time scale, though these were not statistically significant. In contrast, more consistent and significant increasing trends were observed throughout the entire UK, except for Northern Scotland, which exhibited negative trends. Despite indications of a progressively more humid UK, the BEAST analysis enabled the detection of decreasing abrupt changes in trends. These changes result in sudden transitions from wet to dry conditions, which can be challenging to identify using the MK test alone. However, BEAST revealed both positive and negative abrupt changes across the entire UK, as well as positive or negative variations in seasonality. This suggests a high degree of variability in seasonal patterns. In summary, this study provides a detailed assessment of groundwater and meteorological drought trends and abrupt changes, considering the impact of climate change on various regions of the UK.