Abstract
The combined impact of sea level rise, changes in the upstream freshwater flow, and tidal regime on salinity intrusion that affects Pangasius (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus) farming in the Mekong Delta was assessed in this study. Salinity intrusion was simulated for the whole Mekong Delta by a 1D numerical model. The scenario derived from the SRES B2 climate change projection for Vietnam by the year 2100 (0.73 m of sea level rise and 29 % reduction of the Mekong River flow in the dry season). The simulated results suggest that the saline water will shift landward by 70–80 km which covers almost 63 % area of the Mekong Delta. Furthermore, it shows that the Pangasius farming area will be reduced by approximately 11 % with the shrinkage of the freshwater zone due to the salinity intrusion.
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