The Impact of Climate Change on Hydroelectric Resources in Brazil

Abstract

In the coming decades, higher temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall are projected for various semi arid regions due to Global Warming. The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of climate change on hydroelectric production in various river basins across South America. Three different downscaled global climate models are used to estimate the percentage changes in rainfall and streamflow by the 2030s and 2080s under a high emission scenario in comparison to baseline data from the end of the twentieth century. While rainfall is projected to increase slightly over the Uruguay River basin, rainfall over the Amazon and Brazil’s northeast region is expected to decline. Specifically, it was found that due to climate change, streamflow in the Sao Francisco River, the Tocantins River and Parnaiba River is projected to decline by 52%, 31% and 32%, respectively, in the coming 3 decades compared to data from 1961–1990. Moreover, one of the three climate models indicated that the Sao Francisco and Parnaiba rivers’ streamflow and hydroelectric production could potentially cease in the second half of the twenty-first century. Despite some inconsistencies amongst the long-term projections from the 3 different climate models, the results of this research are important in the context of regional climate change and energy resource planning.