Abstract
The damage costs of climate change have the potential to cause the breakdown of governmental structures. The paper focuses on how climate change impacts the state’s fragility and how the government should intervene. The paper chooses temperature and rainfall as climate change indicators and establishes a comprehensive evaluating model. The weighting method of the model is determined by combining coefficient of variation method and improved entropy method. The model will output the objective comprehensive evaluation of state’s fragility. The state’s fragilities are quantitatively divided into three levels consisting of the fragile, the vulnerable and the stable in the model. For validation, this paper selects six representative countries and analyzes the degree and the approach of climate change’s impacts on state’s fragility. The fragile values by the model are consistent with the situation in these countries. The state’s fragilities are also predicted by back propagation (BP) neural network. This paper analyzes the impacts of human interventions on improving state’s fragility. The results indicate that the paper could provide reasonable suggestions for the government in the aspects of when and how to take what kind of interventions to improve state’s fragility.
Highlights
IntroductionIn the 1970s and 1990s, Adger W N [1] analyzed the social vulnerability based on the volatile and extreme climate of coastal cities; Yu Ou [2] applied model simulations, the single index method and the comprehensive index method to quantitatively summarize the vulnerability of regional climate change and promote research and development in this area
The paper conducted a comparative analysis of the change in weight and correlation with and without climate change to explore the ways by which climate change affects the fragility of Sudan and Greece, and used the objective combination weighting method to figure out the weight of indexes on Sudan and Greece fragility with and without the influence of climate change [9]
This paper developed a comprehensive evaluating model to output the objective comprehensive evaluating results of state’s fragility
Summary
In the 1970s and 1990s, Adger W N [1] analyzed the social vulnerability based on the volatile and extreme climate of coastal cities; Yu Ou [2] applied model simulations, the single index method and the comprehensive index method to quantitatively summarize the vulnerability of regional climate change and promote research and development in this area. Xue He [3] used the Analytic Hierarchy Process to establish a fragility evaluation index system, which applied the Likert five-point method to predict the degree of national stability and analyze the country’s Fragility index.
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