Analysis of the impact of environmental change on the vulnerability of Sudan

Abstract

Whether you realize it or not, the global climate is changing imperceptibly. What’s worse, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant. It may influence regional instability and even have the potential to cause the weakening and breakdown of social and governmental structures. In this paper, we develop a creative model to analyze the impact of climate change on country’s fragility and put forward a series of measures to alleviate and eliminate stress which climate change bring to. First, we develop the CAI model based on the PCA and AHP to determine a country’s fragility. Later, we evaluate 178 countries’ fragility and identify when a state is fragile, vulnerable, or stable through K-means algorithm and Grey prediction. Then, we analyze the correlation between climate change and other indicators with Grey relative analysis method. We choose Sudan for analysis. By correlation analysis, we find that, on the one hand, declining rainfall caused the prolonged drought in some parts of areas and conflict the water shortages problem. On the other hand, it indirectly affects the growth of crops, while the Sudan is mainly agricultural and animal husbandry, which leads to food problems … As a result, the fragility increase. Then, without considering climate change, we reassess the fragility. The result is much different from the previous, so climate change has a considerable impact on the fragility of Sudan.