The HIV Transmission Dynamics Model for Five Major Risk Groups

Abstract

Chapters 2 and 3 have focused on modeling the transmission dynamics of HIV and the progression to AIDS for homosexual men. That model is now expanded in Section 7.1 to include five major risk groups: homosexual (and bisexual) men, homosexual (and bisexual) men who are intravenous drug users, intravenous drug users (IVDUs), heterosexual partners of IVDUs and neonates of female IVDUs and heterosexual partners. In this model the homosexual men have homosexual partnerships within their own group and also with homosexual—IVDUs. The IVDUs have needle-sharing partnerships with other IVDUs and also with homosexual—IVDUs. Obviously, the heterosexual partners of IVDUs have sexual partnerships with people who are IVDUs. Perinatal transmission occurs from the female IVDUs and the female heterosexual partners. Figure 7.1 summarizes the risk groups and possible routes of transmission of HIV infection. The fitting procedure for the five-group model is outlined in Section 7.2. This model with the first three risk groups is used for New York City in Chapter 8. The full model is used for regional comparisons in Chapter 10.KeywordsSexual PartnershipIntravenous Drug UserPerinatal TransmissionHeterosexual PartnerActive SubgroupThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.