The HEARTRISK6 Scale: Predicting Short-Term Serious Outcomes in Emergency Department Acute Heart Failure Patients

Abstract

BackgroundAcute heart failure (AHF) is a common emergency department (ED) presentation that may have poor outcomes but often does not require hospital admission. There is little evidence to guide dispositional decisions. ObjectivesThe authors sought to create a risk score for predicting short-term serious outcomes (SSO) in patients with AHF. MethodsWe pooled data from 3 prospective cohorts: 2 published studies and one new cohort. The 3 cohorts prospectively enrolled patients who required treatment for AHF at 10 tertiary care hospital EDs. The primary outcome was SSO, defined as death <30 days, intubation or noninvasive ventilation (NIV), myocardial infarction, or relapse to ED <14 days. The logistic regression model evaluated 13 predictors, used an AIC-based step-down procedure, and bootstrapped internal validation. ResultsOf the 2,246 patients in the 3 cohorts (N = 559; 1,100; 587), the mean age was 77.4 years, 54.5% were male, 3.1% received intravenous nitroglycerin, 5.2% received ED NIV, and 48.6% were admitted to the hospital. There were 281 (12.5%) SSOs including 70 deaths (3.1%) with many in discharged patients. The final HEARTRISK6 Scale included 6 variables: valvular heart disease, tachycardia, need for NIV, creatinine, troponin, and failed reassessment (walk test). Choosing HEARTRISK6 total-point admission thresholds of ≥1 or ≥2 would yield, respectively, sensitivities of 88.3% (95% CI: 83.9%-91.8%) and 71.5% (95% CI: 65.9%-76.7%) and specificities of 24.7% (95% CI: 22.8%-26.7%) and 50.1% (95% CI: 47.9%-52.4%) for SSO. ConclusionsUsing 3 large prospectively collected datasets, we created a concise and sensitive risk scale for patients with AHF in the ED. Implementation of the HEARTRISK6 scale could lead to safer and more efficient disposition decisions.