Abstract
Significant increases in defence spending in European NATO and European Union member states are intended to address long-standing capability shortfalls, support the modernisation and growth of armed forces, replenish stocks, and fill gaps created by the transfer of equipment and munitions to Ukraine. Yet Europe’s defence-industrial base will struggle to meet this increased demand in the short term. Furthermore, the war in Ukraine has revealed Russia’s broader threat to Europe, while the United States’ ‘pivot to Asia’ is likely to accelerate and reduce the American role in Europe’s defence. Accordingly, Europe needs an epochal shift in political thinking, coupled with significantly higher defence spending and a determined effort to reset public perceptions of the need for strong defence. None of these requirements currently looks assured.
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