The Global Outlook

Abstract

No AccessFeb 2023The Global OutlookAuthors/Editors: World BankWorld BankSearch for more papers by this authorhttps://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1906-3_ch1AboutView ChaptersFull TextPDF (67.3 MB) ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack Citations ShareFacebookTwitterLinked In Abstract: Recognizes that global growth should decelerate sharply, to 1.7 per cent in 2023—the third weakest pace of growth in three decades—or 1.3 percentage points below previous forecasts, reflecting synchronous policy tightening aimed at containing very high inflation, worsening financial conditions, and continued disruptions from the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine. The United States, the euro area, and China all continue to undergo a period of pronounced weakness, and the resulting spillovers exacerbate other headwinds faced by emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The combination of slow growth, tightening financial conditions, and heavy indebtedness will likely weaken investment and trigger corporate defaults. Further negative shocks could push the global economy into recession. In the near term, urgent global efforts remain necessary to mitigate the risks of global recession and debt distress in EMDEs. National policy makers should ensure any fiscal support focuses on vulnerable groups, inflation expectations remain well anchored, and financial systems remain resilient. ReferencesAgrawala, S, D Dussaux, and N Monti. 2020. “What Policies for Greening the Crisis Response and Economic Recovery? Lessons Learned from Past Green Stimulus Measures and Implications for the Covid-19 Crisis.” OECD Environment Working Paper 164, OECD, Paris. 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