Abstract
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is a central element of the global nuclear order, the primary goal of which is to prevent nuclear war. But this understanding is being threatened by a number of developments. Frustration about the lack of nuclear disarmament and concerns about humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapons led to the negotiation of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The new treaty has further exposed existing fault lines within the NPT and exacerbated unresolved conflicts over the proper approach to disarmament and the weighting of the NPT pillars. Currently, disagreements over the compatibility of the two treaties and the approach to the TPNW in particular divide the membership of the NPT. At the same time, real proliferation cases test the regime’s ability to act, as norm enforcement is regularly hampered by interference from the great powers. These developments—the absence of genuine disarmament, disputes among NPT members, competition between the TPNW and the NPT, and actual nuclear proliferation—are part of a comprehensive crisis and destabilization of the non-proliferation regime. We argue that three developments are necessary to restabilize the regime: a cooperative resolution of the power struggles among the major powers; a depolarization of the inter-group divisions in the NPT; and a return to the principle of nuclear war prevention as a common maxim for action.
Highlights
In 1995, the Review and Extension Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) decided, without a vote, to extend the treaty indefinitely, after the initial duration of 25 years ended
Nuclear arms control and disarmament are in an agonizing process of seemingly inevitable dismantlement. This prompted a majority of States Parties to conclude a new treaty, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which entered into force in January 2021 after 50 ratifications had been reached
In so doing it provides a comprehensive overview of the fundamental conflicts underlying the crisis, which are evident in the disputes within the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) community and which are closely linked to the emergence of the TPNW
Summary
In 1995, the Review and Extension Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) decided, without a vote, to extend the treaty indefinitely, after the initial duration of 25 years ended. This article aims to reflect on the crisis of the global nuclear order in terms of these four dimensions In so doing it provides a comprehensive overview of the fundamental conflicts underlying the crisis, which are evident in the disputes within the NPT community and which are closely linked to the emergence of the TPNW. The article shows that these crisis dimensions are closely intertwined, even though they are often considered separately: if the crisis intensifies in one area, this has a direct impact on the other dimensions It follows that only a comprehensive response to the regime crisis, one which considers all dimensions, can stabilize and sustain the global nuclear order. We develop a series of suggestions for positive development of the regime
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