The global food supply.

Abstract

There is currently a wide divergence of opinion as to whether in the year 2000 there will be sufficient food supplies to feed a prospective world population of 7 billion. The pessimists warn that even before that time there may be widespread outbreaks of famine, complete exhaustion of our natural resources, a hopelessly deteriorated physical environment, and a world ruled by virtual chaos. The optimists trust that somehow man's intelligence will meet the challenges as they arise. Somewhere between stand the realists, who are aware of the growing threats, but who believe that positive measures taken now can forestall the predicted disaster. The principal thrust of my remarks today is that the ways and means to provide enough food for the world's people, even at the present rate of population growth, are known and are available; there is no need for panic unless man's intelligence, imagination, and enterprise choose to retreat or abdicate in the face of seemingly insurmountable problems. My conviction is, however, predicated on the faith that nations will not fail to take effective steps to lower birth rates, that they will intensify and multiply all efforts to stabilize their numbers. More than half the world suffers from extreme shortages of food. If we were to add to this figure all the people who have a barely sufficient diet but who are not severely undernourished so much as malnourished, the percentage would be much greater. Just to provide the more than 3.5 billion people alive today with a minimally adequate diet would require twice the amount of food now produced. Yet in spite of the existence of such enormous food deficits, the population of the globe is each year increasing at the rate of 70 million. At this growth rateabout 2% a year-the number of human beings will double by the end of this century. Thus even if by herculean efforts the world does succeed in doubling its agricultural production by the year 2000, the food/population ratio would be no closer to being equalized than it is now; more than half of the world would still be underfed. And, in terms of actual numbers of hungry people, there would be at least 2 billion more than there are now. Absolute food deficits, however, are not the only cause of world hunger. There are other factors which complicate the problem of global food supply. In theory, the total calories contained in the 1.088 billion metric tons of food grains which the world now produces are more than enough to provide its 3.5 billion inhabitants with the minimal nutritional requirement of 2500 calories a day. This remains, however, merely a paper-and-pencil exercise -for several compelling reasons. The most important is the great disparity in the distribu-