Abstract
Much controversy exists about effects of U.S. synthetic fuel- and coal-fired electricity generating plants on global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Analyses of carbon flows through solvent refined coal (SRC-II)- and coal-fired electricity generating fuel cycles suggest that most carbon is vented to the atmosphere in each trajectory. Although the SRC-II process requires ∼50% more carbon input, the synthetic fuel trajectory produces only 20–30% more CO2 because of increased carbon input to solid waste. We estimate that proposed U.S. synthetic fuels programs could increase the global CO2 growth rate by less than 0.1% annually (e.g., 2.9 to 2.95% annual growth). In comparison, the World Meteorological Organization estimates that the CO2 growth rate could vary from <1.8 to 4.3% annually, depending on such factors as mix of fuels consumed, changes in end-use device utilization efficiencies, and modifications in energy use per capita. The effect of U.S. synthetic fuels programs is thus small in comparison to programs directed at energy conservation and nonfossil fuel sources of energy. The emphasis on the impact of the synthetic fuels program on CO2 emissions as a deterrent to implementation may be misdirected.
Published Version
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