Recent increasing trend of global CO2 growth rate due to a slowdown in terrestrial carbon uptake

Abstract

The global atmospheric CO2 growth rate is a product of the combined effects of emissions and uptake from both anthropogenic and natural carbon sources. Therefore, an evaluation of the global CO2 growth rate should be preceded to understand the global carbon-climate process. In this study, we analyzed the long-term changes in the global CO2 growth rate from 1991 to 2020, using data from 42 global sites and model simulations to assess recent changes in the global carbon-climate feedback process. Our results indicate that the annual CO2 growth rate has increased by 0.032 ppm yr-2 since the 2000s. A comprehensive assessment of carbon cycle components contributing to atmospheric CO2 growth rate changes reveals that the strengthening of this rate is linked to a decline in terrestrial carbon absorption over the last decade. This decline is primarily associated with a slowdown in the increasing trend of Net Primary Productivity. Consequently, the reduced terrestrial carbon uptake in recent decades contributed to an approximately 3 ppm increase in global CO2 concentration by 2020. Our findings highlight that the vegetation's carbon uptake capacity can no longer offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions, underscoring the importance of achieving global carbon neutrality in climate change mitigation.   This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute(KEITI) through Project for developing an observation-based GHG emissions geospatial information map, funded by Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE) (RS-2023-00232066)