The geopolitical dimensions of the TurkStream pipeline

Abstract

The empirical goal of this paper is to conduct an analysis of the geopolitical dimensions of the TurkStream pipeline, with special consideration given to its determinants as well as a diagnosis of the geopolitical implicationsof its geographical extent. To explore this problem, the following hypotheses are offered. First, the inauguration of the second branch of the TurkStream pipeline in the beginning of 2020 will strengthen the monopolistic positionof Russia as a supplier of natural gas to the countries of the European Union.This will increase the dependency of the EU on Russia and severely hamper itsability to formulate a unified, cohesive energy policy. Second, two factors that underlie the geopolitical importance of the TurkStream pipeline are Turkey’s and Southern Europe’s natural gas needs on the one hand and the political and economic interests of Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine on the other. Third, theTurkStream project should be seen as an instrument that serves to build a tactical partnership between Turkey and Russia – a partnership underpinned by the strategic interests of both countries in the Middle East. Fourth and finally, Russia’s gradual withdrawal from directing its natural gas through Ukraine will generate serious economic problems and potential energy shortages in that country. In the long term, this pressure is geared toward forcing Ukraine to re-evaluate the pro-Western trajectory of its foreign policy.