The Geography of US Union Elections 4: Patterns of Close Elections and Determinants of the Margins of Victory and Loss (the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Union and the United Auto Workers Union, 1970–82)

Abstract

Patterns of close union representation elections and the determinants of the margins of victory and loss are the topics of this paper. The importance of close elections for management, unions, and the National Labor Relations Board is emphasized. Likely union and management strategies for contesting close elections are noted, as is the significance of these elections in relation to the changing political and institutional environment of US labor relations. Empirically, a set of structural and contextual variables are used to discriminate between close and nonclose elections. The determinants of close elections are analyzed through a set of regression models, using as dependent variables the margins of victory and loss. Data on close elections are developed from the electoral performance of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers union and the United Auto Workers union over the period 1970–82. Implications of these results are considered for the role of the National Labor Relations Board and the effectiveness of management consultants in union representation campaigns.