The Futures of the Faculty Promotion Regulations in Iran: a scenario approach

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to evaluate the effects of drivers, macro trends and uncertainties related to them in the course of developing the future regulations for the promotion of university faculty members, and drawing alternative scenarios about the promotion regulations in the horizon of 2035. For this purpose, relying on qualitative methodology and using cross-effect analysis matrix tools and MicMac software, the main drivers of change in this field were identified and analyzed. Then, by using the Senario Wizard software and expert panel, the main uncertainties were determined and possible scenarios for the future of the regulations for the promotion of faculty members in the horizon of 2035 were explained and narrated. According to this, while analyzing the structural relationships of impact and effectiveness among key components, five dominant forces of discourse of higher education in Iran including society's expectation (industry, market and government) from higher education, economy of higher education, competitiveness and internationalization of higher education and emerging challenges and development of interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary sciences were considered as drivers of change. Finally, the three scenarios of "Wisdom and Knowledge Think Tank", "Science and Technology University" and "Logic and Value School" as alternative futures for the promotion system of academic faculty members were explained and the conditions of the regulations in each of the mentioned scenarios were described and compared with each other.