The futures of Canadian governance: Foresight competencies for public administration in the digital era

Abstract

AbstractEvidence‐based practice has advanced in public administration, with increasing reliance on social research and population sampling in decision making. Yet the evidence‐based turn risks marginalizing the value of strategic foresight and futures competencies in informing policy and planning. Where evidence enables policymakers to select the best near‐term course of action, future outcomes are inferred and projected, and not determined by past evidence. Foresight provides a necessary competency for defining and investing in the right direction of future policy and action, by articulating future problematics with multiple foresight methods. While social and technological futures cannot be precisely predicted, future scenarios and prospectuses can be designed to inform options and trajectories for intervention and new policy. The emerging area of digital‐era governance is examined, where complex scenarios for future policies are based on present evidence (such as trends) and informed speculation to formulate policies and options in dynamically changing societal contexts.