Abstract
The European roadmap for the power sector dictates an 80–95% cut of existing levels of carbon dioxide emissions is needed by the year 2050 to meet climate goals. This article describes results from a linear cost optimization investment model, ELIN, coupled with a solar technology model, Distributed Concentrating Solar Combined Heat and Power (DCS-CHP), using published investment costs for a comprehensive suite of renewable and conventional electricity generation technologies, to compare possible scenarios for the future electricity grid. The results of these model runs and sensitivity analyses indicate that: (1) solar photovoltaics (PV) with battery storage will likely play a very large role in meeting European targets; (2) concentrating solar power (CSP) with thermal energy storage is at a slight economic disadvantage with respect to PV to compete economically; (3) the economic potential of wind power is only comparable with solar PV if high wind penetration levels are allowed in the best wind sites in Europe; and (4) carbon capture and nuclear technologies are unlikely to compete economically with renewable technologies in creating a low-carbon future grid.
Highlights
The novelty of the research presented in this article lies in the integration of a detailed solar technology model, Distributed Concentrating Solar Combined Heat and Power (DCS-CHP), with a comprehensive linear investment optimization model, ELectricity INvestment (ELIN), based on the existing European electricity grid while allowing for grid expansion with a variety of new and existing generation technologies and both solar thermal and electrical storage
Results from each of these model runs highlight the role wind and solar technologies will likely have in achieving a low carbon emission electricity grid and how the balance between transmission and storage needs for the grid as a whole is very dependent on the balance between these two technologies
Running a carbon-constrained linear cost optimization (ELIN) model based on a European power plant database (Chalmers PP Db) combined with detailed modeling of solar technologies (DCS-CHP) in one base case and eight sensitivity analyses has shown several trends that likely will shape the future European electricity grid
Summary
The novelty of the research presented in this article lies in the integration of a detailed solar technology model, Distributed Concentrating Solar Combined Heat and Power (DCS-CHP), with a comprehensive linear investment optimization model, ELectricity INvestment (ELIN), based on the existing European electricity grid while allowing for grid expansion with a variety of new and existing generation technologies and both solar thermal and electrical storage. Fürsch et al [2] focused on Europe showing that in order to enable large penetrations of wind and solar technologies, there would need to be a significant build out (>70% increase) of the electricity grid Another linear optimization model, REMix, including storage, transmission and generation investments over all of Europe, shows that the environmental impacts (using LCA) of a high renewable penetration scenario are significantly lower in almost all indicators (compared to fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage (CCS), for example) except notably in mineral depletion [3]. Energies 2017, 10, 2080 achieve carbon reductions of more than 80% at installed costs not unlike what we are seeing today in Europe Without these low solar PV costs, nuclear and CCS technologies would likely play a significant role in the western U.S grid
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