Abstract
For the last 12 years, the natural gas industry has been booming, ever since the Shale Revolution took off. It was a while before the industry began to think of itself in supply “abundance” terms—from expecting to import 8 Bcf/day of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 2030 to expecting to export 14 or so Bcf/day by then—an expectation that looks increasingly conservative in terms of new‐build capacity. The swing between those two numbers, as measurements of the marginal supply‐demand “over‐under,” in essence signaled the United States was adding natural gas supply that will surpass two times the exports of Qatar, the largest LNG exporter in the world. Domestic demand was expected to grow mightily, as abundance‐driven decreases in price led to big gains in market share in both industrial use and electric power generation. Wow, compared with the pre‐2008 predictions of $20 per million Btu prices, increasing imports, and decreased availability, it was as if the sun had come up.
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