The future of lithium-ion batteries: Exploring expert conceptions, market trends, and price scenarios

Abstract

Electric mobility is presented as one of the major solutions to decarbonize the transport sector. The prospect of electric vehicles (EV) reaching cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) is thus widely discussed. Reaching cost-parity would imply a further decrease in lithium-ion battery (LIB) prices. However, the complexity of the LIB landscape makes it difficult to carry out reliable price forecasts. Indeed, the price projections found in the literature vary substantially across authors, methods used, and battery technologies considered. Adopting a qualitative approach, this article uses semi-directive interviews of LIB experts to shed light on the logics underpinning discourses regarding battery price decreases. Qualitative data is analyzed and summarized in three overarching narratives about the future trajectory of LIB prices. The first one envisions a rapid price stabilization due to insufficient raw material supply. The second one suggests also that price will soon stop to decrease but does not envision physical shortages. Our third narrative contemplates a disruption of the market by new technologies such as solid state, which would make further price decrease possible, even on the long run. These results help to clarify the debate over the price of evolution of LIB and are also a methodological contribution in the field of technology forecast.