The Future Central City: Gentrified or Abandoned?

Abstract

Displacement of minorities and low income individuals has been reported in the popular press and in a number of scholarly case studies. Whether displacement is a major national problem or limited to a number of isolated neighborhoods is the subject of national debate. Urban scholars point to decreasing overall demand for central city properties and an overall decrease in the number of white individuals living in the central city to discount the significance of the reports of displacement. This article analyzes both migration by race and housing trends in central cities. The analysis proceeds from nationally aggregated data to central city level and census tract level data. The argument is made that while the population is decreasing in central cities, the number of middle class individuals is increasing in many central city neighborhoods and the number of available housing units is decreasing. This is increasing the competition for existing units. If these trends continue and overall housing costs continue to increase, displacement is likely to become widespread.