Abstract
The article reveals the necessity to use a foresight when designing strategic plans and programs for the socio-economic development of rural municipalities in the present conditions of spatial and harmonious development of rural territories. A phased algorithm for forecasting the social development in rural areas. The article presents the results of foreseeing the social development of rural territories of the Non-chernozem zone of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The proposed unified foresight research methodology that makes it possible to provide a realistic target setting and precise «targeting» of strategic planning for the social development in rural areas. Summing up that the foresight technologies should be used as a system tool for developing a strategy for sustainable development of rural territorial systems.
Highlights
The modern paradigm of Russian economy development in the context of increasing challenges in the external environment, turbulence and macroeconomic shocks, imbalance of social and environmental trends actualizes the need for the systematic approach to the selection of effective drivers and the new «growth points» formation in rural areas [1]
We have developed a phased algorithm for forecasting the social development in rural areas (Fig. 1)
One of the conditions for designing strategic parameters and target indicators reflecting the social development of rural territorial structures should be the use of foresight technologies
Summary
The modern paradigm of Russian economy development in the context of increasing challenges in the external environment, turbulence and macroeconomic shocks, imbalance of social and environmental trends actualizes the need for the systematic approach to the selection of effective drivers and the new «growth points» formation in rural areas [1]. The rural areas turned out to be the most sensitive to the emerging effects and challenges of the external environment, and today they have low protective abilities to the ongoing crisis processes and phenomena against the background of turbulence in the development of the world economy and manifestations of global pandemics such as coronavirus. The modern European version of foresight is based on the inertial development in rural areas, and its methodological basis lacks elements of ontology [4, 5].
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