The Foresight Effect: Local Optimism Motivates Consistency and Local Pessimism Motivates Variety

Abstract

Consumers sometimes prefer to repeat their past choices; at other times the same consumer prefers to try something new. We demonstrate that a consumers’ situational future outlook, that is, local optimism or pessimism about an imminent outcome, can systematically affect the sequential consistency of consumer choices. Specifically, local optimism increases sequential choice consistency, whereas local pessimism increases sequential variety seeking. We test this foresight effect in two experimental paradigms, using both real and hypothetical consumer choices, across six studies. We first establish the basic effect of situational future outlook on sequential choice consistency (studies 1 and 2). Then we provide evidence that differences in the preference for self-continuity underlie the effect (studies 3, 4, and 5). Last, we extend this effect to choices between broadly defined usual and novel consumer products (study 6). Across the studies, we rule out differences in mood, causal attribution, and perceived control as alternative explanations. These findings have theoretical implications on the relationship between future-oriented cognition and consumer behaviors, as well as broad managerial implications for when consumers will be more apt to repeat past purchases or more open to novel product adoption.