The financial shape of things to come

Abstract

The global financial system is undergoing its most significant change in the last four decades. A highly leveraged consumption-driven model undergirded by US fiat currency, Chinese labor arbitrage and US geopolitical primacy, is facing questions. This comes at a time when the global power balance is shifting from the West to the East at the fastest rate in the last three centuries. Economic and security risks are at a multi-decade high and manifest in economic crises and wars. The kind of equilibrium achieved by major and emerging powers after this period of transition will depend on how they derisk supply chains, re-globalize trade and mitigate conflicts