Abstract
We find that an expansion of credit has a positive effect on per capita output growth only up to a point. Beyond this threshold the impact of finance on growth is not statistically significant anymore. We show, however, that the estimated non-linear relationship may stem from the omission of factors not considered in the literature so far. These factors may have a negative impact on growth in mature financial systems, and include the magnitude of financial cycles as well as the importance of non-intermediation activities in banks’ business models.
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