The Feasibility of a 100% Renewable Electricity Mix before 2040 in China

Abstract

During the Paris COP21 2015, China had submitted its INDC to aggressively reduce its CO2 emission and promoted renewable energy development. In recent years, China has not only fulfilled most of its INDC requirements but also grew tremendously in its renewable energy sector. The purpose of this study is to explore China’s potential for renewable energy development of 2040 and examine the possibility of a 100% renewable electricity mix in China. This exercise will commence with China’s primary energy demand along with shaping factors and other international report insights. Then analysis and estimation of different major renewable energies supply in recent years and 2040 will be presented. The study indicated that it is almost impossible for China to reach a 100% renewable electricity mix in 2040. Instead, China’s potential renewable electricity mix will be ranging from 40.88% to 68.77% in 2040. This result can be achieved only if China can maintain its renewable energy development momentum in the past 10 years. This result will be better if China can implement more and effective economic incentives for renewable energy installations.