Abstract
BackgroundDengue is the world's most important mosquito-borne viral illness. Successful future management of this disease requires an understanding of the population dynamics of the vector, especially in the context of changing climates. Our capacity to predict future dynamics is reflected in our ability to explain the significant historical changes in the distribution and abundance of the disease and its vector.Methodology/Principal FindingsHere we combine daily weather records with simulation modelling techniques to explain vector (Aedes aegypti (L.)) persistence within its current and historic ranges in Australia. We show that, in regions where dengue presently occurs in Australia (the Wet Tropics region of Far North Queensland), conditions are persistently suitable for year-round adult Ae. aegypti activity and oviposition. In the historic range, however, the vector is vulnerable to periodic extinction due to the combined influence of adult activity constraints and stochastic loss of suitable oviposition sites.Conclusions/SignificanceThese results, together with changes in water-storage behaviour by humans, can explain the observed historical range contraction of the disease vector. For these reasons, future eradication of dengue in wet tropical regions will be extremely difficult through classical mosquito control methods alone. However, control of Ae. aegypti in sub-tropical and temperate regions will be greatly facilitated by government policy regulating domestic water-storage. Exploitation of the natural vulnerabilities of dengue vectors (e.g., habitat specificity, climatic limitations) should be integrated with the emerging novel transgenic and symbiotic bacterial control techniques to develop future control and elimination strategies.
Highlights
Dengue fever is a public health problem of global importance, producing a spectrum of disease spanning febrile arthralgia to hemorrhagic death
Dengue viruses are transmitted between human hosts almost exclusively by Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stg.) albopictus mosquitoes, both of which are well adapted to using artificial containers for larval habitat
In Australia, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes once occurred throughout temperate, drier parts of the country but are restricted to the wet tropics
Summary
Dengue fever is a public health problem of global importance, producing a spectrum of disease spanning febrile arthralgia to hemorrhagic death. Many urban areas in the tropical world are subject to dengue transmission [1], the geographic range of which is limited by the distribution of the vectors. These ranges are not static, with numerous expansions and retractions recorded through time. The principal vector, Ae. aegypti, is thought to have originated in Africa and extended its range globally with the expansion of commercial shipping in the 17th and 18th centuries [4,5]. Our capacity to predict future dynamics is reflected in our ability to explain the significant historical changes in the distribution and abundance of the disease and its vector
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