Abstract
Author(s): Winterhalder, Bruce P.; Puleston, Cedric O. | Abstract: We adopt an imagined exchequer, the functionary responsible in an early polity for securing resources from its agrarian subjects, and we develop a feature-rich demographic and environmental model to explore the population ecology of agricultural production in the context of population growth, Malthusian constraints and economic exploitation. The model system allows us to (i) identify and characterize a peak of surplus production early in population growth, prior to density-dependent constraints and (ii) characterize the taxation potential of a population at its Malthusian equilibrium. For a fixed total level of taxation the exchequer has two options: a small population taxed at a high rate, unstable to small perturbations, or a larger population taxed at a lower rate, which is stable. In a small and growing population it is more effective to tax goods; as the population approaches its density-dependent equilibrium it becomes more effective to tax labor. We likewise show that early agrarian states afflicted by stochastic variation in agronomic output face an extinction risk dependent on the level of taxation and magnitude of yield variation. Successful agrarian states balanced resource exploitation against dynamic population ecology constraints; we propose that fiscal mismanagement should be among the hypotheses for polity failure.
Highlights
The exchequer of our title is a high-level functionary in an early state made up of a ruler, an elite and administrative staff, and a growing population of peasant agriculturists, the subjects of the polity and the producers of its agrarian resources
If the population is small with respect to its equilibrium size it will experience a prolonged peak of potential surplus production relatively early, well before density-dependent limitations come into play
We well are aware of the caveats associated with the use of simplifying models in historical study (Winterhalder 2002; Kohler and van der Leeuw 2007); we contend that models are essential aids in understanding the population ecology dynamics that may be consequential but difficult to discern within archaeological and even historical records of socioeconomic evolution
Summary
The exchequer of our title is a high-level functionary in an early state made up of a ruler, an elite and administrative staff, and a growing population of peasant agriculturists, the subjects of the polity and the producers of its agrarian resources. We begin with the premise that in early chiefdom- or state-level agricultural societies the economic problems facing our exchequer largely are problems of population and agrarian ecology. Little is known about how they were produced through dynamic mechanisms of interaction among producers, the environment, and the resources being exploited It is this subject that we take up on behalf of our exchequer and the study of fiscal policy in early agrarian states
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